West Linn Mortgage Update: PCE Hits a 3-Year High, Pending Sales Jump, and HB 4037 Goes Live Wednesday

If last week was the week the Fed flipped the script, this week was the data confirming why. Inflation hit a three-year high. Mortgage rates went in both directions depending on which lender you looked at. Pending home sales surprised to the upside but new home sales tumbled. And on Wednesday, Oregon's most significant housing reform in years takes effect. With Independence Day this Saturday and the unofficial midpoint of the summer real estate season here, this is a particularly information-rich moment for anyone watching the West Linn or Lake Oswego market. Here is what matters.

May PCE Hit the Highest Reading Since April 2023

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the May Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Thursday, June 25. The headline number, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 4.1% on an annual basis, the highest reading since April 2023 ([Pomegra](https://pomegra.io/news/may-2026-pce-inflation-hits-41-highest-since-april-2023), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/25/economy/us-pce-inflation-may)). Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, came in at 3.4% annually, also elevated. Housing costs rose 0.3% on the month and financial services and insurance jumped 1.2% ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/pce-inflation-report-may-2026-.html)).

The market reaction was telling. Markets now assign roughly a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. Deutsche Bank's economists are projecting two hikes this year, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.1% ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation)). Yahoo Finance reports the probability of a September 25-basis-point hike at roughly 50%.

The combined signal from the last week of June Fed minutes, last Wednesday's hawkish dot plot, and now the PCE print is fairly clear. The next move from the Fed is more likely to be a hike than a cut. That is a meaningful shift in market psychology from where we were 60 days ago.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand: Mixed Picture

Heading into Monday morning, the mortgage rate picture is genuinely mixed across sources, which tells you how much variance there is right now in actual lender pricing. A snapshot:

• Freddie Mac's weekly survey for June 25: 30-year fixed at 6.49% (up 0.02 from prior week), 15-year fixed at 5.84% (up 0.03) ([Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)).
• Mortgage News Daily, June 26: The 30-year hit 6.53%, the lowest reading since May 14 ([Mortgage News Daily](https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates)).
• Wall Street Journal, June 29: 30-year fixed at 6.54%, 15-year at 5.93%, 5/1 ARM at 5.81%, 30-year jumbo at 6.64% ([WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/mortgage/mortgage-rates-today-6-29-2026)).
• U.S. News / Zillow data this morning: 30-year purchase at 6.531%, down from 6.549% Friday ([U.S. News](https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/articles/mortgage-rates-today-june-29-2026)).
• NerdWallet, Monday 9:10 AM ET: 30-year fixed at 6.25% APR, down 13 basis points from a week ago. 15-year at 5.75% APR (down 15 bps), 5-year ARM at 6.39% APR ([NerdWallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates)).

The pattern. Daily lender pricing has improved modestly from last week's highs, but the broader trend is sideways in the mid-6% range, with the bond market increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed hike later this year. For West Linn buyers who are mostly in jumbo territory (above the $832,750 conforming limit), 30-year jumbo pricing is running in the high 6% range, with significant variance across lenders that makes shopping the 50-plus-lender broker network meaningful.

The Housing Data: Two Different Stories

Two important housing data points landed this month that tell different stories about where the market actually is:

Pending home sales jumped 4.8% in May year over year per Realtor.com's analysis of NAR data. Buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines through spring appear to have made peace with mid-6% mortgage rates as the new normal and are entering contracts in higher numbers ([Realtor.com](https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/pending-home-sales-rise-may-2026-housing-update/)). This is consistent with what we are seeing locally in Portland metro, where lockbox showings hit 74,804 in May (the highest of 2026, up 3.7% year over year).

New home sales tumbled in May, according to the Census Bureau's data released June 24. Buyers recoiled from the combination of mid-6% mortgage rates and rising new-construction prices ([Realtor.com](https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/new-home-sales-census-may-2026/)). Existing-home sales had risen in May to their highest level since December, but the gain may not last because pending sales and new listings slowed as June arrived and rates resumed climbing ([Real Estate News](https://www.realestatenews.com/2026/06/09/existing-home-sales-rose-in-may-but-momentum-may-not-last)).

Translation. The resale market, where most West Linn purchases happen, is performing better than the new-construction market. Buyers are accepting today's rates for the right existing home but pulling back on builder homes where the combination of premium pricing and elevated rates pushes total payments past the comfort threshold.

Oregon HB 4037 Takes Effect This Wednesday, July 1

This is the structural local news of the week. Oregon's omnibus housing reform, signed by Governor Kotek on April 7, has its most consequential provisions become operative Wednesday, July 1 ([Selling PDX Homes](https://www.sellingpdxhomes.com/blog/hb4037-portland-new-construction-2027)).

The headline provisions kicking in this week:

• Section 17: Local governments can no longer require public hearings for qualifying housing applications. Third-party appeal rights to the Land Use Board of Appeals are eliminated for clear-and-objective projects. This removes one of the riskiest parts of the permitting timeline, where a single neighbor appeal could add four to six months to a project.
• Self-certification expansion: Architects and engineers can self-certify a wider range of code compliance, accelerating the permitting process meaningfully.
• State enforcement mechanisms: Oregon now has stronger tools to compel cities that have been slow-walking housing production targets.

The real-world impact for West Linn buyers does not show up overnight. Developers still need land, financing, and 12 to 18 months of construction after permitting. The earliest meaningful new-construction inventory impact in West Linn and across the metro is 2027 to 2028. But the law shifts the structural slope of housing supply growth for the rest of this decade, which matters for long-term affordability.

What This Means for West Linn Specifically

West Linn (97068) continues to see active spring and early-summer activity, with median list prices near $880,000 and most purchases requiring jumbo financing. Three things to focus on this week:

1. Rate volatility is real, but the trend is sideways. Different lenders are pricing meaningfully differently right now. A broker network shopping 50-plus lenders genuinely matters on a West Linn jumbo loan. We see daily pricing variance of 10 to 25 basis points across investors on the same exact loan profile.
2. Buyers who are ready to act are getting rewarded. The pending sales jump tells you that buyers who stopped waiting for sub-6% rates and started buying at today's rates are getting through deals. The buyers still waiting for the perfect rate are increasingly likely to wait until 2027 or 2028.
3. The Independence Day window is the strategic sales pivot. Sellers who get under contract by July 4th capture the strongest summer buyer pool. After Independence Day, the buyer audience contracts modestly through August before picking back up in early September. If you are listing in West Linn this summer, the next 14 days are the best window remaining.

Around the Community: This Week and Next

• Independence Day, Saturday July 4: West Linn, Lake Oswego, Oregon City, Tualatin, and Wilsonville all host community celebrations with parades, picnics, family activities, and fireworks. Banks and most lenders closed Friday July 3 (observed) and weekend.
• West Linn Old Time Fair, Friday July 10 through Sunday July 12 at Willamette Park: The 69th annual edition of one of Oregon's longest-running community celebrations. Free entry and parking. Parade Saturday morning ([West Linn Special Events](https://westlinnoregon.gov/parksrec/special-events)).
• Wednesdays in Willamette Summer Street Market: The weekly downtown street market in West Linn's Historic Willamette district runs every Wednesday evening through September 9.
• West Linn Music in the Park: Free outdoor concerts at Willamette Park and other venues running through August.
• Lake Oswego Summer Concerts in the Park: Free concerts at Westlake Park and Millennium Plaza Park continuing through summer.
• Lake Oswego Farmers Market: Saturdays 8:30 AM to 1:30 PM at 200 First Street through October 31 (closed July 4).
• Wilsonville Farmers Market: Saturday mornings at Town Center Park.

Three Frameworks for the Week Ahead

1. If you are house hunting: Refresh your pre-approval letter. With rates volatile and HB 4037's structural effects still 18 to 24 months out, today's market is the market. Be ready to act on the next data point (June jobs report July 3, June CPI July 15) in either direction.
2. If you are weighing a refinance: Cash-out for high-interest debt consolidation continues to make sense. FHA-to-conventional for mortgage insurance removal continues to work. ARM-to-fixed conversions deserve a closer look if your ARM is approaching adjustment. Straight rate-and-term refinances remain the toughest math right now. We will run the breakeven analysis on real fees in 15 minutes.
3. If you are listing this summer: The next two weeks before Independence Day are the strongest remaining audience window. Three rules continue to determine outcomes: price to closed comps from the last 45 to 60 days, invest in professional staging and photography, and offer a seller-funded 2-1 buydown as a meaningful negotiation concession.

The Bigger Picture

This is one of the more confusing data weeks of 2026, with inflation rising, rates mixed, pending sales jumping, new home sales tumbling, and a major Oregon housing law taking effect all in the span of seven days. Step back, and the message is consistent with what we have been saying for months. The waiting-for-lower-rates strategy is unlikely to be rewarded this year. The market that has emerged is genuinely more functional for thoughtful buyers and realistic sellers than the bidding-war environment of 2021 and 2022. The structural reforms passed this spring will start to add real new construction inventory in West Linn and across the metro in 2027 and 2028.

For the right West Linn family looking at the right home with the right financing structure, today's market still produces strong outcomes. Headlines should inform timing and negotiation, not paralyze the decision.

If you want help comparing jumbo programs across our 50-plus-lender network, running buydown math on a specific home, walking through OHCS first-time buyer programs, or simply thinking through whether now is your moment, Renegade Home Mortgage is here. Schedule a free 15-minute consultation or call us at (503) 974-3571. Have a wonderful Independence Day weekend.